Government of Somaliland (GoSL)
Domestic Revenue Mobilization and Public Financial Management Capacity Strengthening Project
(P151492)
(CONSULTING SERVICES – INDIVIDUAL CONSULTANTS)
Macro-Economic Technical Advisor Economist – Economist
Terms of Reference (TOR)
Post Title | Macro-economic Technical Advisor – Economist |
Duration of Assignment | 12 Months |
Started Date | Immediate |
Type of Appointment | Individual |
Duty Station | Ministry of Finance Development, Macroeconomics and Statistics Department (M&SD) |
Terms of Reference (TOR)
1. Background
The Government of Somaliland has received Additional Financing from the World Bank towards the implementation of the Domestic Revenue Mobilization (DRM) and Public Financial Management (PFM) Capacity Strengthening Project. The overall project development objective (PDO) is to ‘strengthen systems of domestic revenue mobilization, expenditure control and accountability in Somaliland.
Somaliland public financial management reforms has been improving since the establishment of the contemporary Somaliland in 1991. In addition, significant improvements have been done for the current years mainly due to changes in various Legislations and Regulations. These legislation and regulation changes include the Constitution, Public Finance and Management Law No 75/2016, Somaliland Financial Regulation, and Comprehensive Operating, Accounting and Procedures Manual 2019 developed Pursuant to the Public Finance and Management Law No 75/2016. These new legislations, regulations, policies and manuals provide the Budget process in line with international best practices.
Consistent with its National Development Plan II, the Government of Somaliland (GoSL) is in the process of reviewing its revenue laws, regulations and procedures and undertaking reforms and modernization efforts to ensure enhanced efficiency and optimal productivity. As part of its continuous improvement drive, the GoSL through the Domestic Revenue Mobilization (DRM) and Public Financial Management (PFM) Capacity Strengthening Project, requires the services of a technical adviser in Macroeconomic and Statistical Department, Ministry of Finance.
The Country needs to develop a macroeconomic and fiscal framework. This is necessary for improving the predictability and reliability of revenue and expenditure forecasts based on government economic policies. In addition, macroeconomic and statistical capacity of the department must be improved to ensure a more efficient of resources use and management of public resources.,.
Finally, to complete the primary strategy of PFM Policy as well as PFM acts, Somaliland needs to;
- Establish a macroeconomic model to provide both short-term and medium-term forecasts
- Improve the current macroeconomic database and core economic indicators/data.
Establishment of macroeconomic model and source of economic indicators will provide reliable preparation of a 3-year fiscal framework of aggregate macroeconomic projections consistence with vision of 2030. In addition, a macro fiscal framework is important for the successful implementation of the National Development Plan II and in pursuing medium term fiscal and monetary policies that ensure stability and induce strong private sector growth.
2. Objective (s) of the Assignment
The main objective of this consultancy is to hire an expert to articulate and formulate and, a macroeconomic and fiscal model for Somaliland for forecasting and decision purposes. The specific objectives of this assignment are;
- To articulate, formulate and structure, a macro-fiscal forecasting model. The model needs to integrate all the segments of the national economy (real economy, fiscal, financial and external sector).
- To provide all macroeconomic modelling information for development of the macroeconomic database.
- To build the technical capabilities and capacities of the Macroeconomic and Statistics Department staff
3. General Scope of the Assignment/Work
The technical macro-economic advisor will be working with the Macroeconomic and Statistical Department in the Somaliland Ministry of Finance Development. The scope of the consultancy assignments includes:
- Designing and constructed the macro-fiscal forecasting model for the Somaliland economy.
- Assisting national data assessment and analysis by; providing data gaps within the national economy and sectors.
- Identifying the data input and the database that would be used to solve various model’s equations
- identifying the uses of different deflators for different type of variables, within the overall model’s framework.
- Obtaining, organizing and cleaning and structuring data to complete macroeconomic database development, with a substantive and statistically viable size of observations (number of time series/historical years), as well as handling higher degree of statistical reliability and efficiency.
- Providing technical training of the macroeconomic modelling and macroeconomic framework including forecasting and scenario analysis.
- Building technical capacity of the Macroeconomic and statistical department staff.
4. Key Deliverable
Following are the expected outputs in developing the economic models:
- Inception Report (hard copy for each study with electronic copy), which includes, among others, lie work plan that identifies in detail the theoretical framework, possible set of indicators, approaches and methodologies to be utilized in the development of the model, detailing the data requirements, anticipated bottlenecks and proposed solutions)
- Consultative Meetings, which includes consultative discussion with M&SD staff.
- Interim Report, containing the result of the preliminary set of indicators and preliminary outputs/runs.
- Draft Final Report, which integrates the final inputs, comments and recommendations from M&SD, and contains the detailed specifications of the short term and medium-term macroeconomic model including the operations manual) (With Final Model}
- Presentation (hard copy for each of the study with electronic copy and the economic models), to the Minister, Directors and M&SD official and staff for evaluation, and comments.
- Capacity Building for at least 12 M&SD Staff, which includes presentation of theory, estimation processes, trouble shooting and updating of the model, if necessary, preparation of lecture materials, and initial operations manual).
- Revised Final Report, which takes into account the final comments from M&SD , and includes the technical description of the final model, limitations of the model, assumptions and parameters used, lessons learned during the training, revised final user’s manual on data gathering and processing, step- by-step procedure for running each of the models with illustrative examples showing the results of the simulations).
- Technical Advisor for each project is expected to provide orientation/briefing on each of the output reports mentioned above to the concerned personnel of the M&SD, as needed.
- Assign M&SD technical staff counterpart who will work closely with the consultant;
5. Qualification Requirements.
The consult should have the following qualifications and experience to carry out the assignment.
- MA in Economics; PhD in Economics is preferred
- At least 10 years’ experience in macroeconomic analysis and public financial management;
- Demonstrated experience developing Excel-based macroeconomic projection tools for governments;
- Training and facilitation experience in macroeconomic projection;
- Experience working in Sub-Saharan Africa;
- Fluency in English and communication skills;
- Ability to proactively seek and recommend sound policy initiatives;
- Demonstrated ability to transfer skills and knowledge to others.
6. TA Required Deliverable
No | Deliverables | Percent of payment |
1 | · Inception Report which includes, among others, work plan that identifies in detail the theoretical framework, possible set of indicators, approaches and methodologies to be utilized in the development of the model, detailing the data requirements, anticipated bottlenecks and proposed solutions. | 15% |
2 | · Consultative Meetings, which includes consultative discussion with M&SD staff and other relevant staff from the other MDAs.
· Desk review of all available literature and drafting of the skeleton report; |
15% |
3 | · Interim Report, containing the result of the preliminary set of indicators and preliminary outputs/runs.
· Draft Final Report, which integrates the final inputs, comments and recommendations from M&SD, and contains the detailed specifications of the short term and medium-term macroeconomic model including the operations manual) (With Final Model). |
15% |
4 | · Presentation of the economic models, to the minister, Directors and M&SD officials and staff for evaluation, and comments. | 20% |
5 | · Capacity Building for at least 12 M&SD Staff, which includes presentation of theory, estimation processes, trouble shooting and updating of the model, if necessary, preparation of lecture materials, and initial operations manual). | 15% |
6 | · Technical Advisor for each project is expected to provide orientation/briefing on each of the output reports mentioned above to the concerned personnel of the M&SD, as needed.
· Assign M&SD technical staff counterpart who will work closely with the consultant; · Final Report, which takes into account the final comments from M&SD , and includes the technical description of the final model, limitations of the model, assumptions and parameters used, lessons learned during the training, revised final user’s manual on data gathering and processing, step- by-step procedure for running each of the models with illustrative examples showing the results of the simulations). |
20% |
7. Reporting and other Deliverables
The Technical Advisor will report to the Director General Ministry of Finance and the Director of Macroeconomic and Statistics as well as PFM coordinator.
8. Duration of the Assignment
The assignment is expected to take 12 months with possibility of extension, depending on the performance evaluation of the TA.
9. Location of the Assignment
The duty station is Hargeisa, Somaliland, the Ministry of Finance shall provide the technical Assistant with a suitable office space and internet services.
10. Facilities to be Provided
The Ministry of Finance will provide the technical advisor with office facilities, internet connectivity, essential utilities, office services, stationery and office supplies and use of a computer, printer, scanner and photocopying etc. In addition, Ministry of Finance will make available to the Technical Advisor copies of all the documents the Technical Advisor may need to discharge his functions; and will assist the Technical Advisor in liaising with all agencies of government and sector ministries under the project and with other agencies of government on matters related to the project. The project will also provide transport to the Technical Advisor as required for their official duties.
11. Procedures Applicable for Selection/Methodology
- The Individual Technical Advisor will be hired on the basis of the World Bank’s Guidelines for Selection and Employment of Consultants (January 2011). The contracted Technical Advisor will take a position at the Ministry of Finance.
- A Technical Advisor will be selected in accordance with the Individual Selection method set out in the Technical Advisor Guidelines.
- Applications letters must be delivered in a written form to the address below or by e-mail by or in a written form in three (3) hard copies. Application letters received later than specified date shall not be considered. Electronic applications must be copied to all shown email addresses and must clearly specify the name of the assignment being applied for.